Computing return times or return periods with rare event algorithms
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
On Estimating Hurricane Return Periods
Interest in hurricane risk usually focuses on landfalling events of the highest intensity, which cause a disproportionate amount of hurricane-related damage. Yet assessing the long-term risk of the most intense landfalling events is problematic because there are comparatively few of them in the historical record. For this reason, return periods of the most intense storms are usually estimated b...
متن کاملConvergence of Logarithmic Return Times
Foreword The last nine months of my study were dedicated to writing this master thesis. After having determined that I wanted it to be based on the course of Ergodic Theory, that I took in the first semester of the academic year 2003/2004, Karma Dajani suggested the subject of repetitions in number expansions. The subject interested me right from the start. Since in general writing my master th...
متن کاملReliability, return periods, and risk under nonstationarity
Water resources design has widely used the average return period as a concept to inform management and communication of the risk of experiencing an exceedance event within a planning horizon. Even though nonstationarity is often apparent, in practice hydrologic design often mistakenly assumes that the probability of exceedance, p, is constant from year to year which leads to an average return p...
متن کاملReturn periods of European winter precipitation extremes
On the variability of return periods of European winter precipitation extremes over the last five centuries A. Pauling and H. Paeth Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12, 3012 Bern, Switzerland Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Auf dem Hügel 20, 53121 Bonn, Germany Received: 22 February 2006 – Accepted: 18 March 2006 – Published: 24 April 2006 Correspondence t...
متن کاملImproved Range in the Return times Theorem
We prove that the Return Times Theorem holds true for pairs of L − L functions, whenever 1 p + 1 q < 3 2
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment
سال: 2018
ISSN: 1742-5468
DOI: 10.1088/1742-5468/aab856